SEATTLE: Boeing projects a demand for 38,050 new airplanes over the next 20 years, an increase of 3.5 percent from last year's forecast. Rival Airbus is forecasting a 4.0 percent rise to 32,600 new aircraft in the same period.
Boeing estimates the total market value at US$5.6 trillion of which US$2.2 trillion will be in Asia.
The manufacturer expects the widebody segment will require 8,830 new airplanes, led by "small widebody" aircraft up to 300-seats of which 1,530 will be ordered in Asia and 880 by Gulf and Middle East carriers. By the end of 2034 the world's commercial airplane fleet will have doubled to 43,560 airplanes of with 58 percent will be the result of market growth.
Boeing expects airfreight, including express traffic, to grow at 4.7 percent per year and will require 920 new airplanes over the 20-year forecast.
"We've seen two years of solid growth in the air cargo market and we expect that growth to continue," said Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing,
Measured in revenue tonne-kilometers (RTKs), Asia cargo traffic will grow 5.7 percent between 2015 and 2034; Latin America, 5.5 percent; the Middle East, 6.3 percent; Africa, 6.9 percent and North America the lowest level of growth at 2.9 percent.
Overall, world air cargo traffic will increase from 207.8 billion RTKs in 2013 to 521.8 billion in 2033 says the manufacturer.
The Boeing and Airbus forecasts coincide with Air France KLM May traffic results that show a 25 percent drop in freighter capacity compared to the same month last year. Group cargo RTKs fell 12 percent for the month and 10.4 percent for the first five months of 2015 compared to 2014. In April the airline was the recipient of the first ever e-AWBs shipment out of Saudi Arabia to Piarco International Airport, Trinidad & Tobago from Jeddah-based forwarder Express Forwarding Services.
In a related move, Air France KLM reportedly is seeking clarification from Alitalia about its decision not to renew a cargo marketing agreement after January 2017 as the Italian airline begins discussions with Delta, another SkyTeam partner, about changing capacity allocation on the North Atlantic.
