COPENHAGEN: February 21, 2019. The Baltic and International Maritime Consultative Organization (BIMCO), representing 56 percent of world shipping, says the forthcoming Fourth International Maritime Organization (IMO) Greenhouse Gas Study should not include unrealistically high GDP growth projections to determine the future level of shipping industry emissions.
“It is imperative that the industry – and the world – base discussions and actions to reduce emissions from shipping on credible and realistic projections. If not, we risk making the wrong decisions and spending resources ineffectively,” claimed BIMCO deputy secretary general Lars Robert Pedersen.
BIMCO wants the next IMO study to ignore Scenarios 1 and 5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Shared Socio-economic Pathways because they are based on unrealistic short- to mid-term economic growth projections.
“The previous [IMO] study’s most pessimistic projection of a 250 percent increase in CO2 emissions from shipping has since proven to be totally unrealistic, given the actual and projected economic development of the world,” said Pedersen. “Unfortunately, the 250 percent projection has frequently been used as a stick against the shipping industry and to shape regional policy. BIMCO wants to avoid that happening again.”
BIMCO says a new report by CE Delft, the consultancy that modeled and calculated the Third IMO GHG Study’s emissions projections in 2014, uses a more realistic GDP growth forecast to project a reduction of 20 percent against a goal of 50 percent by 2050.
Acknowledging the 30 percent shortfall, Pedersen said: “We will need new solutions, in addition to traditional efficiency measures, to reach the 2050 target. But to pick the right solutions, we need realistic projections.”
BIMCO has 2,000 members in more than 120 countries representing shipowners, operators, managers, brokers and agents.
Commenting on the role of shipping in emissions reduction, A.P. Moller - Maersk CEO Søren Skou said: “With the latest scientific assessments, there is no doubt that the world in general needs to embark on an all-encompassing transformation process away from the reliance on fossil fuels. This goes for shipping as well, and we have taken steps to respond to this need.
“In 2018 A.P. Moller - Maersk established the most ambitious goal for reducing CO2 emissions within our industry. We have begun a journey towards having net-zero CO2 emissions from our own operations by 2050. This is an important ambition and one we can only deliver on in collaboration with many other stakeholders by innovating and developing the technologies needed to reach the target," he added.
This week A. P. Moller - Maersk reported a 26 percent increase in revenue for 2018 to US$39 billion, a profit of US$3.2 billion and an underlying profit of US$220 million from continuing operations.
Pictured: On September 28, 2018, M/V Venta Maersk called the port of Saint Petersburg after successfully completing a 37-day trial passage of the Northern Sea Route. The vessel, one of Maersk Line’s new Baltic feeders, departed Vladivostok in August and after further stops in Vostochny Stevedoring Company and Busan, passed through the Bering Strait in early September on its way to Bremerhaven.
